【新华解读】2025年四季度全球央行货币政策观察：全球央行分道扬镳 日本央行加息搅动全球政策格局

Core Viewpoint - The global monetary policy landscape is increasingly divergent, with major central banks adopting different stances on interest rates as they navigate economic stability, inflation, and employment concerns. The Federal Reserve and New Zealand are expected to implement significant rate cuts, while the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are likely to proceed cautiously or maintain current rates [1][12]. Group 1: Developed Economies Interest Rate Changes - As of the end of 2025, New Zealand's interest rate decreased from 3.00% to 2.25%, a reduction of 0.75% [3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its rate from 4.25% to 3.75%, a decrease of 0.50% [3] - The Bank of England reduced its rate to 3.75%, marking a cumulative decline of 0.25% [5] - The European Central Bank maintained its rates at 2.15%, showing no change [3][6] - Japan's central bank raised its rate from 0.50% to 0.75%, an increase of 0.25%, becoming the only major central bank to hike rates during this period [2][4] Group 2: Emerging Markets Interest Rate Changes - Turkey's central bank cut its rate from 40.50% to 38.00%, a reduction of 2.50% [8] - Russia's rate decreased from 17.00% to 16.00%, a drop of 1.00% [8] - Mexico's rate was lowered from 7.50% to 7.00%, a decrease of 0.50% [10] - South Africa and India both reduced their rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to 6.75% and 5.25%, respectively [9] - Several emerging market central banks, including Brazil and Indonesia, opted to keep their rates unchanged [10][11] Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - In the first quarter of 2026, the Federal Reserve may slow its rate-cutting pace after several reductions, influenced by fiscal expansion policies [12][13] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain a neutral stance, with no immediate plans for rate changes [12][14] - The Bank of England's future rate decisions will be cautious, reflecting internal disagreements on the appropriate level of interest rates [14] - Emerging market central banks are likely to adopt varied strategies based on their unique inflation and growth conditions, with some, like Mexico and Turkey, potentially considering further rate cuts [12][14]