UBS(US:UBS) Di Yi Cai Jing·2026-01-15 05:15Core Viewpoint - UBS predicts a low single-digit decline in wholesale and a mid single-digit decline in retail for the domestic automotive market this year [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The automotive industry has seen excessive establishment of companies due to high growth expectations and capital market support, leading to intensified competition and innovation, but also to chaotic competition harming consumer rights [1] - The market is currently experiencing a "de-involution" trend, with a temporary stabilization in pricing, although companies are adjusting configurations and renaming models to indirectly alter prices [1] - The average price of passenger vehicles is on a downward trend, with over half of dealers operating at a loss, indicating a restructuring of profits and market dynamics [2] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The automotive industry is facing challenges such as the decline of purchase tax incentives, adjustments in replacement subsidies, and rising raw material costs [2] - The industry’s profit margin remains low at approximately 4.4%, highlighting the need for increased industry concentration to address these issues [2] - UBS forecasts an 8% growth in the new energy vehicle segment this year, despite the overall challenges facing the market [2]