CA Markets：关税裁决与鲍威尔调查引爆2026年外汇震荡

Group 1 - The Supreme Court is set to make a ruling on the legality of the 301 tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, which could significantly impact the USD index, potentially dropping it from 99.80 to around 98.00 if the tariffs are deemed invalid, or pushing it towards 100.50 if upheld [3] - The investigation into the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation costs has raised concerns about the independence of the central bank, with the ECB and BoE issuing a rare joint statement emphasizing the need for central banks to remain free from political interference [4] - The market is currently experiencing volatility, with the USD index testing 99.80 but struggling to maintain stability, while gold prices have reached $4620 per ounce [6] Group 2 - If the Supreme Court ruling favors Trump, tariff policies may extend to sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy, potentially damaging global trade sentiment; conversely, if tariffs are rejected, the crisis of Fed independence could still undermine confidence in the USD [6] - A diversified investment strategy is recommended, allocating one-third each to gold, safe-haven currencies, and USD assets to mitigate risks associated with single asset exposure [7] - The dual pressures from the judicial investigation and tariff ruling are seen as a stress test for the Fed's authority, with market sentiment likely fluctuating between political confrontation and monetary policy considerations in the coming weeks [9]