盛松成：为什么说现在降准比降息更重要？

Core Viewpoint - The main theme of the speech is the necessity of timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, complemented by proactive fiscal policies [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - The likelihood of a "small step" approach in monetary policy is high, as it requires a cautious attitude in the face of complex uncertainties [3]. - The transmission mechanism of monetary policy is complex and involves a longer path, with the central bank unable to precisely control each link in the chain [4]. - The central bank's toolbox for monetary policy is becoming increasingly rich, with various liquidity support tools and market operations being utilized to stabilize short-term market fluctuations [4][5]. Group 2: Reserve Requirement vs. Interest Rate - Reducing reserve requirements (RRR) is preferred over lowering interest rates, as RRR increases the funds available to commercial banks, aligning better with proactive fiscal policies [5][6]. - The majority of government bonds and local government debts are held by commercial banks, making RRR a more effective tool for ensuring efficient coordination between fiscal and monetary policies [5][6]. - Since 2016, the statutory reserve requirement ratio has been adjusted 23 times, all of which have been reductions, indicating a focus on liquidity release [7]. Group 3: Interest Rate Dynamics - There is still some room for interest rate reductions, but the foundation for sustained large-scale cuts is lacking due to low interest elasticity in consumption and investment [8][9]. - The current low inflation levels provide a basis for interest rate cuts, with CPI growth at 0.2% in 2024 and PPI experiencing negative growth for 39 consecutive months [9]. - The central bank's structural monetary policy tools are designed to optimize credit structure and support sectors like technology innovation and real estate, with a significant amount of funding allocated to these areas [9][10]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The expectation is for a gradual reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates over the next two years, with the core goal being to guide the economy towards stability and improvement [10]. - The current economic situation is approaching a cyclical bottom, with prospects for gradual recovery, emphasizing the need for fiscal policy to take the lead while monetary policy supports this effort [10].