Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Xin Hua Cai Jing·2026-01-15 06:00Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that if Indonesia implements stricter mining quota restrictions on nickel by 2026, global nickel prices may significantly rise, with an average price expected to approach $18,000 per ton, higher than the previously set baseline scenario forecast [1] - Under the baseline scenario, Goldman Sachs estimates the average nickel price in 2026 to be around $14,800 per ton, but tighter resource development policies from the Indonesian government could reduce mining quotas to 260 million tons, leading to a slowdown in global nickel supply growth and tightening market supply-demand dynamics [1] - The market is closely monitoring Indonesia's resource policy direction, as stricter quota limits could not only impact raw ore supply but also have a cascading effect on the production pace of downstream nickel pig iron and high-grade nickel products, potentially increasing costs across the entire industry chain [1] Group 2 - The Director General of Minerals and Coal at Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Terry Winarno, stated that the nickel mining quota (RKAB) target for 2026 is approximately 250 to 260 million tons, which will be strictly matched with domestic smelting capacity, lower than market expectations [1] - Following the Indonesian government's signal of tightening nickel mining quotas, international nickel prices reacted swiftly, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel price briefly surpassing $18,000 per ton, reaching a new high for the period [1]