累库压力逐步显现 碳酸锂期货盘面短期维度向下

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the lithium carbonate market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices fluctuating and showing weakness in performance [1][2] - The main contract for lithium carbonate futures opened at 163,840.0 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 165,000.0 yuan and a minimum of 156,180.0 yuan, reflecting a decline of 4.16% [1] - Market sentiment has diverged recently, influenced by policy benefits and expectations for energy storage demand, but profit-taking and weak fundamentals have led to a market adjustment phase [2] Group 2 - Demand for energy storage batteries has increased by 0.99% month-on-month, but there is a notable decline in the production of power batteries as the market enters a low season [2] - Inventory pressure is becoming evident, with an expected accumulation of over 5,000 tons in January [2] - Despite short-term supply and demand weakening, medium-term support is anticipated from policy tightening, high growth in energy storage demand, and increased processing fees [2] Group 3 - The current high volatility of lithium carbonate futures indicates significant market trading risks, and the sustainability of continued price increases remains uncertain [3] - There is a strong demand for spot purchases of lithium carbonate ahead of the Spring Festival, suggesting that the industry may exhibit "not dull in the off-season" characteristics [3] - Investors are advised to gradually realize profits in the short term and wait for market risks to be fully released before considering low-price entry opportunities [3]