日元遭疯狂做空！分析师警告：若跌破162，可能迅速跌向170

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has fallen to an 18-month low, with hedge funds betting that the authorities will tolerate a decline towards 165, while analysts warn that if the key technical level of 162 is breached, the exchange rate could rapidly surge to 170, testing the effectiveness of government intervention [1][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - The options market shows that the volume of call options betting on the dollar's rise is more than twice that of put options, indicating a strong market expectation for the yen to continue weakening [1][5]. - Hedge funds are ignoring intervention warnings and are betting on the yen falling to the 165 level, with a stable demand for higher dollar-yen structures observed [5]. - The imbalance in options trading, with call options being favored, highlights a bullish sentiment towards the dollar-yen exchange rate despite the current levels being similar to those seen during the last intervention in July 2024 [5]. Group 2: Technical Analysis and Risks - Analysts indicate that if the dollar-yen rate breaks through the 162 level, it could quickly rise to 170 due to concentrated options-related orders around that level [6]. - The weakening of the yen's safe-haven appeal is noted, as it continues to decline even amid heightened risk aversion triggered by geopolitical events [7]. - The current market environment differs significantly from 2024, with a neutral net position in yen futures indicating a lack of large short positions available for covering, which could limit potential rebounds [8][9]. Group 3: Political and Economic Factors - Political uncertainty surrounding Prime Minister Suga's early election plans is adding downward pressure on the yen, with expectations that a majority win for the ruling party would lead to continued expansionary policies [10]. - Deutsche Bank outlines three scenarios regarding potential election outcomes, suggesting that a failure to secure a majority could lead to market sell-offs and a strengthening of the yen, while a stable majority could weaken it further due to fiscal expansion expectations [10].