Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-15 06:28Group 1: Market Overview - The global large model market is expected to reach $206.5 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 80.7% from 2024 to 2029, driven by the iteration of large models and increased AI application penetration [1] - The large model application market is projected to be the main growth driver, with an estimated market size of $151.5 billion by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 84.4% during the same period [1] Group 2: AI General Assistants - The AI general assistant sector is anticipated to see leading companies continue to consolidate the market, with OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI forming a first tier in overseas markets [2] - In the Chinese market, ByteDance, Tencent, Alibaba, and DeepSeek are expected to form a first tier, while smaller firms like Kimi and Minimax may face disadvantages in infrastructure and traffic acquisition as competition intensifies [2] - As of December 2025, active users for ByteDance's Doubao, DeepSeek, and Tencent's Yuanbao are projected to reach 155 million, 82 million, and 21 million respectively [2] Group 3: AI Entertainment Companions - The AI companionship applications are still in the early development stage, with rapid improvements in large model text and multimodal capabilities driving user penetration and consumption [3] - By 2030, the penetration rate of AI companionship applications among global internet users is expected to exceed 40%, with a projected annual revenue of approximately $70 billion, representing a CAGR of 200% from 2023 to 2030 [3] - Leading AI companionship applications include Character AI, Minimax Talkie AI, and ByteDance's Cat Box, with MAUs expected to reach 3.09 million, 2.35 million, and 470,000 respectively by December 2025 [3] Group 4: AI Visual Generation - The global AI visual generation application market is projected to reach $16.6 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 66% from 2025 to 2027 [4] - Companies with leading model capabilities, product capabilities, and financial resources, such as Google Veo and Kuaishou's Keling, are expected to perform well in this sector [4] - Kuaishou's Keling AI is set to experience several catalysts, including the launch of new features and a revenue breakthrough of $20 million in December 2025, corresponding to an ARR of $240 million [4] Group 5: Minimax Valuation - Minimax completed its public offering in Hong Kong in January, increasing market attention on the AI application sector [5] - As of January 12, Minimax's valuation corresponds to approximately 222 times its estimated ARR for 2025 [5] - Kuaishou's Keling is conservatively estimated to have a valuation of $2.8 billion to $5.6 billion, representing about 6% to 18% of Kuaishou's market value, with a valuation discount of 70-90% compared to Minimax [5]