国投瑞银策略报告 | 一季度：多类资产向好，人工智能热潮能否持续对市场表现极为关键

Market Overview - In 2025, most assets performed positively, with global stock indices, industrial and precious metals, and US Treasuries entering a bull market, despite some pressures from trade disputes in April [1][2] - The weak performance of the US dollar, domestic bonds, energy, and agricultural products was noted, with domestic bonds underperforming expectations due to various factors including economic data volatility [2] Economic Factors - The bull market was supported by several fundamental factors: the decline of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, ongoing de-dollarization, a soft landing for the global economy, and continued investment in technology sectors like AI [2] - The interplay of these factors suggests that without strong capital expenditure in technology and TACO transactions, achieving a soft landing would be challenging [2] 2026 Market Outlook - For 2026, a moderate economic slowdown is expected, with developed economies like the US and Europe maintaining stable growth [3] - AI-related investments in the US are anticipated to continue supporting economic growth, potentially mitigating recession risks [3] - Fiscal policies in major economies are expected to be expansionary, providing additional support to economic growth [3] Asset Allocation - US Treasury yields are expected to have limited room for decline in 2026, with a neutral scenario predicting a slight decrease in yields [7] - The outlook for US equities remains cautiously optimistic, with a strategy of buying on dips being recommended due to ongoing AI developments and supportive monetary policies [7] - Gold is viewed positively due to long-term trends like de-dollarization and central bank purchases, despite recent price fluctuations [8] - Industrial metals like copper are also favored due to limited supply and demand from new economic sectors [8] Domestic Market Insights - In China, inflation trends will be crucial for the performance of stocks and bonds in 2026, with expectations of gradual recovery in corporate earnings and return on equity (ROE) [6] - The A-share market is expected to see a bullish trend, driven by improving corporate fundamentals and increasing demand for equity investments from residents [6][12] - Key sectors to watch include midstream manufacturing benefiting from PPI improvements and stable growth companies with potential for valuation recovery [22][24] Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to face challenges in becoming a bull market, with limited upside potential for yields [9] - The overall economic environment suggests that while nominal growth may improve, the risks to the bond market remain skewed to the downside [9][36] - The strategy for bond investments should focus on maintaining liquidity and considering short-duration assets to navigate potential volatility [36]