2026年，全球经济向何处去？

Group 1 - The core argument of the articles is that tariffs will continue to reshape the global economy in the coming years, with a notable impact on economic growth rates, which are projected to decline from 3.3% to 3.1% by 2026 according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) [1][2] - Tariffs are seen as a significant factor contributing to the slowdown in global economic growth, despite the IMF stating that the impact of tariffs is less severe than initially expected [1][2] - Historical context is provided, highlighting that tariffs can lead to severe economic consequences, such as the Great Depression in the 1930s, which was exacerbated by protectionist policies [4][5][6] Group 2 - The articles discuss the lack of strong retaliatory measures from other countries against U.S. tariffs, which has prevented a repeat of the global economic collapse seen in the past [9][10] - Current trade agreements with countries like the UK, South Korea, and Japan have been established, but many nations still lack agreements with the U.S., indicating ongoing risks in global trade relations [11] - The articles emphasize that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs continues to pose challenges for businesses, affecting their planning and investment decisions, despite some resilience shown by companies [10][11] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs on oil prices is also mentioned, with Goldman Sachs predicting an 8% decline in Brent crude oil prices to $56 per barrel due to strong production from the U.S. and Russia [13] - The ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China are highlighted, with a continuous decline in trade volume between the two nations, driven by various issues including tariffs and supply chain concerns [13][14] - The significance of upcoming diplomatic engagements, such as Trump's planned visit to China, is noted, although the potential for substantial outcomes remains low [14][15]