中邮证券：AI已成为新药物发现“加速引擎” 建议关注AI4S、AI+制药赛道

Core Insights - The global drug development outsourcing market is projected to grow from $151.2 billion in 2023 to $363.2 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 13.3% [1] - AI is becoming a key driver in new drug discovery, enabling rapid screening and optimization of potential candidates, which may shorten drug discovery timelines [1][4] - By 2026, leading companies in the AI+pharmaceutical sector, such as Crystal and TEMPUS, are expected to achieve positive EBITDA for the first time, indicating a valuation restructuring phase for the industry [1][3] Market Overview - The North American market has significant private data barriers in the medical field, which is essential for effective AI applications [1] - The complexity of medical processes and reliance on expert judgment highlight the need for advanced AI solutions in drug development [1] - The potential market space for drug development outsourcing is substantial, with a forecasted growth rate of 13.3% [1] Capital Developments - In 2026, leading AI+pharmaceutical companies are anticipated to see a dual impact on performance and valuation [3] - Crystal Holdings signed a collaboration agreement worth HKD 47 billion ($5.99 billion) with DoveTree, setting a record for AI pharmaceutical orders [3] - Crystal's drug discovery solutions generated revenue of RMB 435 million in H1 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 616% [3] Technological Advancements - AI models, particularly deep learning and generative models, can efficiently learn complex relationships between molecular structures and biological activities [4] - AI's ability to predict key parameters such as binding affinity and toxicity can significantly enhance the success rate and efficiency of new drug discovery [4] National Support - Crystal has secured two major national science and technology projects, focusing on AI for Science and new materials [5] - The projects aim to build a scientific knowledge graph and an AI experimental platform to empower drug and material research [5] Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch in the AI+pharmaceutical sector include Crystal Holdings (02228), Insilico Medicine (03696), TempusAI (TEM.US), WuXi AppTec (02359), and HengRui Medicine (01276) [6]