黄金ETF持仓量报告解读（2026-1-15）黄金延续上涨并刷新历史新高

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, maintains its holdings at 1,074.23 tons, while gold prices continue to rise, reaching record highs due to lower-than-expected U.S. core inflation data and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of January 14, the SPDR Gold Trust holds 1,074.23 tons of gold, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - The current gold price reached a peak of $4,642.88 per ounce, closing at $4,626.41 per ounce, marking a rise of $39.96 or 0.87% [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The rise in gold prices is attributed to lower-than-expected U.S. core inflation data, which has reinforced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. - Market participants are divided on the likelihood of two or three rate cuts this year, with current expectations slightly increasing from 52 basis points to 54 basis points [5][6]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Concerns over the trust in U.S. assets and the independence of the Federal Reserve, combined with geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, have driven increased safe-haven buying of precious metals [6]. - The Australian and New Zealand Banking Group forecasts gold prices could exceed $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, while silver is expected to reach $100 per ounce [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold is currently trading within a rising wedge pattern, which typically indicates weakening upward momentum; a break below the lower trendline could trigger a bearish reversal [6]. - The daily chart shows the 20-day moving average breaking above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing a bullish outlook, although the relative strength index has entered overbought territory [6]. Group 5: Price Levels - Short-term resistance for gold is at approximately $4,650, with the next target being $4,700 if this level is breached [7]. - Initial support is found at the nine-day moving average of $4,520, followed by the lower trendline around $4,470 [7].