日元干预前奏已现，市场或迎“突袭式”行动，紧盯“利率检查”

Core Viewpoint - Nomura warns that the rules of intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance regarding the yen are changing, indicating a significant increase in intervention risk as market volatility suggests a shift from verbal warnings to tactical preparations [1] Group 1: Market Behavior and Intervention Signals - The sudden drop in USD/JPY during the UK trading session, without any apparent positive news for the yen, is likely a result of a "Rate Check" by the Ministry of Finance, which often precedes actual intervention [4] - Historical context shows that after a similar "Rate Check" on September 14, 2022, the Japanese government intervened with a substantial amount of 2.8382 trillion yen (approximately $19.8 billion) just eight days later, suggesting that current market movements may signal impending intervention [4] Group 2: Caution Against Overreliance on Indicators - Nomura advises against placing too much faith in the so-called "Kanda Line," a set of intervention warning indicators, as no signals are currently active; however, this does not imply a low risk of intervention [5] - The former Finance Minister Kanda acknowledged that intervention decisions are not based on these indicators in an automated manner, highlighting the need for vigilance [5][6] Group 3: Broader Focus on Currency Pairs - The scope of the Ministry of Finance's intervention may be expanding beyond just USD/JPY, as new foreign exchange affairs chief Mimura indicated that authorities are monitoring various currency pairs, not solely focusing on the dollar-yen relationship [7] - Reports suggest that the Ministry conducted a "Rate Check" on EUR/JPY in July 2024, indicating potential alternative intervention strategies to curb yen weakness without directly purchasing yen [7][8] - Historical interventions by Japan around the year 2000 targeting EUR/JPY suggest that investors should be cautious and not solely focus on USD/JPY, as they may be caught off guard by unexpected actions [8]