有色金属的价值到底在哪里？上涨逻辑硬不硬？

Group 1 - The core logic of the current surge in non-ferrous metals is driven by a combination of monetary system reconstruction, demand revolution, and supply constraints, which is expected to have a more sustained impact than the previous infrastructure-driven cycle in 2006 [4][5] - The demand for non-ferrous metals is being fueled by new engines such as renewable energy, AI, and high-end manufacturing, which are consuming metal resources at an annual growth rate of over 20% [3][4] - The geopolitical landscape is influencing resource countries to use mineral exports as leverage, leading to a significant reduction in global mining capital expenditure from 2020 to 2025, resulting in almost zero new capacity in 2026 [4] Group 2 - The supply-demand imbalance is evident, with LME copper inventory sufficient for only 1.5 days of global consumption and Shanghai aluminum inventory down 70% from its peak in 2025 [4] - The increasing use of copper in electric vehicles, AI data centers, and the growing demand for aluminum in renewable energy applications are key drivers of future demand [6] - Companies with resource self-sufficiency and technological barriers, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, are expected to enjoy excess profits, while those relying solely on processing may face cost pressures [6] Group 3 - The long-term bullish trend for copper, aluminum, and silver is expected to continue at least until 2027, despite short-term volatility [6] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with supply shortages, such as copper, while avoiding those with oversupply, like aluminum and lithium [6] - Direct investment in resource-focused active funds is recommended, with top holdings including Yun Aluminum, Tianshan, and Zijin, to mitigate individual stock volatility [6]