甲醇短期或偏强震荡

Core Viewpoint - Methanol prices have shown a strong performance since the New Year, driven by geopolitical disturbances in Iran leading to reduced imports, although downstream MTO profit compression limits price increases [1][5]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Domestic supply remains high due to sustained operating rates of coal-based methanol plants, while natural gas-based plants are experiencing seasonal shutdowns, leading to a temporary reduction in supply [2]. - Overseas supply has significantly decreased, particularly due to the shutdown of Iranian methanol plants since late November, resulting in a continuous decline in overseas operating rates [2]. - Currently, only a few Iranian methanol plants are operational, with daily production at low levels, and a notable decrease in Iranian shipments since December, indicating a significant reduction in domestic imports expected in Q1 [2]. Group 2: Demand Trends - Demand is currently weak, primarily due to traditional demand being in the off-season and profit compression in olefins leading to expected shutdowns of some facilities [3]. - Although the overall operating rate remains relatively high, terminal demand is weak, resulting in low inventory replenishment willingness among downstream players [3]. - The reduction in olefin demand, which accounts for over half of methanol demand, is expected to significantly limit methanol price increases [3]. Group 3: Inventory Changes - Recent domestic methanol inventory shows divergence, with port inventories gradually decreasing while inland inventories are accumulating [4]. - Port inventories have started to decline since December, primarily due to reduced imports and increased replenishment by olefin companies post-holiday [4]. - Inland inventory pressures have emerged due to high domestic production levels and declining traditional demand, leading to a gradual accumulation of inventory [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Short-term methanol prices are expected to remain strong, primarily due to market speculation regarding geopolitical factors affecting imports, although downstream demand reduction may suppress price increases [5]. - The majority of Iranian methanol plants are currently shut down, maintaining low daily production, with expectations of a significant reduction in domestic imports in Q1 [5]. - The market will closely monitor further developments in geopolitical situations and the dynamics of coastal MTO facilities, with methanol prices anticipated to maintain a strong oscillating trend [5].