ZHIFEI-BIOL(SZ:300122) Jin Rong Jie·2026-01-15 08:27Core Viewpoint - The vaccine industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with a significant decline in public willingness to receive vaccinations, leading to substantial losses for leading companies like Zhifei Biological. The company anticipates a loss of 10.698 billion to 13.726 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit decline of 630% to 780% year-on-year [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The direct cause of the massive loss is not due to a depletion of operating cash flow but rather large-scale asset impairment provisions made on a cautious basis. This includes inventory write-downs due to lower-than-expected sales and market demand changes [2]. - The global increase in "vaccine hesitancy" following public health events has exacerbated demand shrinkage across the entire vaccine industry, creating severe challenges [2][6]. - Policy adjustments and market environment changes have disrupted the demand rhythm for certain vaccine products, leading to increased inventory pressure for companies [2]. Group 2: Company Response Strategies - Zhifei Biological has initiated several measures to address short-term operational pressures, including negotiating procurement plans with partners and optimizing product promotion strategies to improve inventory turnover efficiency [2][3]. - The company has secured a syndicated loan of up to 10.2 billion yuan from Agricultural Bank of China to alleviate debt pressure and optimize its debt structure [3]. - Zhifei Biological is also issuing technology innovation bonds to further enhance its financial stability and reduce financial risks [3]. Group 3: Long-term Development and Innovation - Despite short-term pressures, Zhifei Biological continues to invest in R&D and international expansion, with 34 preventive biological pipeline projects under development, including several in clinical trial stages [4][5]. - The company has achieved significant milestones in its product pipeline, including the approval of new vaccines that will diversify its product offerings and support future revenue growth [5]. - Zhifei Biological's internationalization efforts include clinical trials for vaccines in foreign markets, which are expected to enhance its global presence and revenue streams [5][6]. Group 4: Policy Support and Market Opportunities - The inclusion of HPV vaccines in the national immunization program is a significant policy change that is expected to boost public vaccination awareness and gradually revive market demand [6][7]. - The government's push for high-level openness and support for Chinese vaccines in global public health governance presents new opportunities for companies with strong technical capabilities [7]. - 2026 is seen as a critical year for Zhifei Biological to validate its transformation efforts, with plans to accelerate product launches and optimize business strategies for sustainable development [7].