对话基金经理汤戈：储能需求爆发叠加固态电池加速，看好锂电设备投资机会｜基遇2026

Core Insights - The A-share market is expected to reach a total market value of 100 trillion yuan by 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4,000 points, marking a nearly ten-year high [2] - The focus for investment opportunities in 2026 will be on sectors that align with long-term industrial trends, particularly in the new energy sector [4][5] Investment Opportunities - The lithium battery industry is anticipated to present a complex interplay of "cyclical" and "growth" opportunities, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and new demands from sectors like energy storage and AI [4][6] - The equipment segment of the lithium battery supply chain is viewed as having the highest valuation elasticity, especially during the early stages of industry upturns [4][7] Market Dynamics - The initial market activity in 2026 is largely influenced by the momentum from 2025, characterized by a significant influx of margin trading and private equity funds favoring growth themes [5] - Short-term thematic trading driven by market sentiment is expected to be unsustainable, necessitating a shift towards sectors with clear long-term growth potential [5][6] Solid-State Battery Insights - Solid-state batteries have transitioned from experimental phases to engineering stages, presenting tangible investment opportunities, although widespread adoption may not occur until after 2030 [6][7] - The investment value in the solid-state battery supply chain is highest in the equipment and materials segments, with the latter potentially experiencing explosive demand due to new material requirements [7][8] Application and Transition - The consumer electronics sector is likely to be the first to adopt solid-state batteries on a large scale due to lower cost sensitivity compared to the automotive sector [8] - The half-solid-state battery technology is seen as a transitional phase, with investment strategies considering both immediate opportunities and long-term trends in solid-state technology [8][9] Investment Philosophy - The core investment philosophy emphasizes identifying opportunities based on industrial trends, cyclical patterns, and company performance changes [9] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors driven by clear industrial trends and to understand the valuation elasticity of different segments to avoid chasing inflated valuations [9]