Hua Xia Shi Bao·2026-01-15 09:17Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, marking the end of a support policy that has been in place since 2013 [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The export VAT rebate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% during a buffer period from April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, before being completely eliminated on January 1, 2027 [1]. - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate will affect four specific product categories, including silicon wafers and photovoltaic cells, impacting the entire supply chain from silicon to modules [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, there has been a surge in demand for low-priced photovoltaic modules, leading to price increases both domestically and internationally [4]. - The domestic module price has risen to 0.85-0.89 yuan/W, which is 20% higher than the current transaction price, indicating a strong market reaction to the policy change [4]. - Export prices for photovoltaic components in Europe have also shown an upward trend, with FOB prices reaching 9.8-11 euro cents [4]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate is expected to drive up prices in the photovoltaic sector, potentially accelerating the elimination of low-cost competition and pushing companies towards higher value and better technology [7]. - The shift from a supply-demand logic to a cost-driven logic in the photovoltaic industry is evident, with rising raw material costs contributing to the price increases [5][6]. - Companies are adapting by adjusting production capacity based on orders, and there is an expectation of increased communication with overseas distributors regarding the new policy [7].