ATFX汇评：美联储褐皮书发布，8个储备区温和增长

Economic Activity - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a neutral to optimistic outlook, with 8 out of 12 districts reporting slight or moderate economic growth, compared to the previous report where economic activity showed little change [1] - The recovery from the government shutdown in late 2025 is evident, as 8 districts have achieved growth, suggesting a rebound in the U.S. economy [1] Labor Market - The labor market remains stable, with 8 out of 12 districts reporting no changes in hiring, which is considered good news given the previous downturn [3] - Non-farm employment in December was reported at 50,000, lower than the previous 56,000 and below the average of 100,000 prior to May 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the labor market [3] Inflation - Companies expect a slowdown in price increases, but prices are expected to remain high, which is a critical factor for the Fed's interest rate decisions [5] - Historical data suggests a higher probability of continued decline in inflation rather than an increase, with core CPI remaining at 2.6% in November and December 2025, compared to above 3% earlier in the year [5] Currency Impact - Following the Beige Book release, the dollar index closed with a bearish candlestick, indicating a short-term consolidation phase [5] - The neutral optimism reflected in the Beige Book suggests that the U.S. economy may not be as pessimistic as previously thought, potentially allowing for a continuation of the dollar's short to medium-term upward trend [5]