退货率30%，AI眼镜成“大厂丑儿子”？

Core Insights - The evolution of smart wearable devices is expanding from wrists and fingers to the nose bridge, marking the beginning of a "battle of hundreds of glasses" [2] - 2025 is defined as the "Year of AI Glasses," with numerous consumer-grade products set to launch, driving rapid growth in the global smart glasses market [3][4] - The competition will intensify in 2026 as more tech giants enter the market, with Google, Apple, and ByteDance announcing their AI glasses projects [5] Market Overview - In 2024, AI glasses sales are projected to be 1/125 of smartwatches, but with a staggering year-on-year growth of 533% [6] - The global shipment of AI glasses in 2024 is expected to reach 152,000 units, while the total shipment of wearable devices (smartwatches and bands) is estimated at 190 million units [10] - Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2028, global AI glasses shipments could reach 35 million units, with a compound annual growth rate of 96% [11] Product Categories - AI audio glasses combine headphones with glasses, focusing on high-quality audio and voice assistant features, making them the most accessible form of smart glasses [7] - AI camera glasses include first-person perspective recording capabilities, appealing to social media users and content creators [8] - AI+AR glasses incorporate augmented reality features, overlaying virtual information onto the real world [9] Consumer Trends - The Double Eleven shopping festival in 2025 saw a 25-fold increase in smart glasses sales on Tmall, indicating strong consumer interest [12] - AI glasses are categorized as a high-growth segment alongside AI smartphones and learning devices, with sales growth exceeding 100% [12] - The market's enthusiasm is driven more by marketing efforts from major companies than by widespread consumer demand [29] Sales Performance - Xiaomi and Rokid are leading in sales, with Xiaomi's glasses priced at 1,899 yuan and Rokid's at 4,299 yuan, targeting different consumer segments [33] - Popular features among consumers include real-time translation, first-person shooting, high-definition calls, and smart voice assistants [34] - Despite high sales, the average return rate for AI glasses is around 30%, indicating potential issues with consumer satisfaction [32][38] Challenges and Future Outlook - The main challenges for AI glasses include balancing weight, computing power, and battery life, often referred to as the "impossible triangle" [44] - The lack of physical retail experiences contributes to high return rates, as potential buyers face information asymmetry [45] - The industry is exploring the concept of "necessity" for AI glasses, questioning whether their functionalities can support daily use like smartphones [46]