东亚银行：预期美联储今年减息三次 恒指目标30800点

Economic Outlook - East Asia Bank forecasts global economic stability in Q1 2026, suggesting investors increase stock allocations and adopt a "buy on dips" strategy for gold [1] - The bank's investment strategist indicates that global economic resilience, declining inflation, and a likely accommodative monetary and fiscal policy environment will prevail [1] Interest Rate Predictions - The expectation is for the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times this year, totaling 75 basis points, due to a weak job market and falling inflation [1] - The aim is to balance stable inflation with employment support to avoid an economic "soft landing" [1] AI Sector Insights - Despite high valuations and signs of a bubble in AI stocks, the current AI industry benefits from policy support amid major power competition and a lower interest rate environment, facilitating easier corporate financing [1] - The explosive growth in AI demand is expected to provide solid long-term support for the sector [1] Stock Market Targets - The target for the Hang Seng Index in 2026 is set at 30,800 points, with a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 times, while the CSI 300 Index target is 5,080 points [1] - There is an optimistic outlook for the profitability of Chinese companies, particularly in sectors such as AI, smart driving, humanoid robotics, high-end manufacturing, entertainment consumption, telecommunications, and Hong Kong real estate rental and transportation [1] Bond Market Expectations - Asian corporate dollar bonds are expected to perform steadily this year due to improving credit fundamentals, declining US interest rates, and a trend towards de-dollarization [2] - Strong demand is noted for bonds in the Chinese technology, media, and telecommunications sectors, while caution is advised regarding real estate bonds [2] Currency Outlook - The mainland economy is entering a phase of policy effectiveness, and if future data continues to improve, it will support a new wave of appreciation for the Renminbi [2] - With interest rates already low in mainland China, there is limited room for significant further rate cuts [2]