虚增还是真回暖？拉卡拉上年净利增200%，投资收益占大头

Core Viewpoint - Lakala's performance is expected to improve in 2025 after four consecutive quarters of declining revenue and net profit, primarily driven by significant non-recurring gains rather than core business growth [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.06 billion to 1.2 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 202% to 242% [3]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to be between 300 million and 410 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 46% to 26% compared to the previous year [3][4]. Non-Recurring Gains - The substantial increase in net profit is largely attributed to non-recurring gains, estimated at approximately 814 million yuan, which stem from the appreciation of listed company stock assets and significant investment income from the sale of some stock holdings [4][5]. - The core operating performance of Lakala has shown a downward trend, with the net profit excluding non-recurring items declining significantly due to a contraction in card payment transaction volumes [5]. Industry Context - The decline in net profit after excluding non-recurring items reflects the broader challenges faced by the payment industry, which is undergoing a period of intense regulatory scrutiny and market restructuring [6][8]. - The payment industry is experiencing a significant reduction in the number of licensed institutions, with 12 payment licenses officially revoked in 2025, leading to a decrease in the total number of licensed institutions to 163 [10]. - Regulatory pressures have intensified, with the total fines across the industry exceeding 293 million yuan in 2025, highlighting the challenges faced by many payment institutions [10][11]. Strategic Developments - Lakala is actively pursuing a transformation in its core business, focusing on enhancing digital payment services and expanding its global business footprint, with notable growth in QR code payment transactions and cross-border payment volumes [6][7]. - The company aims to integrate payment services with SaaS and AI technologies to drive future growth, indicating a strategic shift towards high-quality development in response to industry challenges [7].