凯德北京投资基金管理有限公司：美国通胀数据维持温和 市场对美联储降息预期有所升温

Core Insights - The latest U.S. inflation data shows stable price pressures at the end of last year, with a key indicator falling below expectations, leading to increased speculation in financial markets about the Federal Reserve potentially initiating interest rate cuts earlier than anticipated [1][7]. Inflation Data Summary - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December rose by 0.3% month-over-month, aligning with market expectations, while the year-over-year increase was 2.7%, also meeting forecasts [3]. - Food prices increased by 0.7% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, with a notable decline in egg prices, which fell by 8.2% month-over-month [3]. - Energy prices saw a slight increase of 0.3% month-over-month [3]. - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, showed a more moderate trend, with the core CPI rising by only 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, both figures being 0.1 percentage points lower than analyst predictions [3][7]. Housing Costs Impact - Housing costs, which account for about one-third of the index weight, remain a significant driver of inflation, increasing by 0.4% month-over-month and maintaining a year-over-year increase of 3.2% [7]. - Following the stable report, traders adjusted their expectations for monetary policy, with the probability of the Federal Reserve deciding to cut rates in April rising to approximately 42%, up from about 38% prior to the data release [7]. Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current situation is not unprecedented, as inflation has not accelerated again, but the process of returning to target levels appears to be stalled [7]. - The report may not provide the Federal Reserve with sufficient confidence to take immediate action on rate cuts [7]. - Caution is advised in interpreting the data due to potential distortions from the government shutdown last year, which interrupted data collection [9]. - Future employment market and wage growth data will be critical factors influencing policymakers' decisions [9].