TSMC(US:TSM) 智通财经网·2026-01-15 10:42Industry & Operational Situation - In 2025, strong growth in AI-related demand was observed, while non-AI markets showed signs of recovery, with the "Foundry 2.0" industry growing by 16% year-on-year [1] - The "Foundry 2.0" industry is expected to grow by 14% year-on-year in 2026 [1] - AI accelerator business accounted for 15% of TSMC's revenue in 2025, with an upward revision of revenue growth forecast, expecting a CAGR of mid-to-high 50% from 2024 to 2029 [1] - TSMC's overall revenue is projected to have a CAGR of nearly 25% in USD from 2024 to 2029 [1] - The second phase of the Arizona facility has been completed, with production plans being advanced due to strong customer demand, aiming for mass production in the second half of 2027 [1] Financial Performance - Sales revenue reached NT$1,046.09 billion (approximately USD 33.73 billion), with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7% and a year-on-year increase of 20.5% [2][3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was NT$505.74 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.8% and a year-on-year increase of 35.0% [2][3] - Gross margin was reported at 62.3%, up 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from favorable exchange rates and optimized capacity utilization [2][3] - Earnings per share (EPS) was NT$19.50, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.8% and a year-on-year increase of 35.0% [2][3] Capital Expenditure & Guidance - Capital expenditure (CapEx) was NT$356.91 billion, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.2% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [5] - For Q1 2026, revenue guidance is set between USD 34.6 billion and USD 35.8 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% and a year-on-year increase of 38% expected [5] - For the full year 2026, revenue is expected to grow nearly 30% year-on-year in USD, with market consensus at USD 150.44 billion, reflecting a growth of approximately 25% [6] - Long-term gross margin is expected to exceed 56%, with a focus on improving production efficiency and optimizing capacity across nodes [6] Market Dynamics & Customer Insights - TSMC's CEO expressed confidence in the sustainability of AI demand, citing positive feedback from customers regarding AI's impact on their business growth [7][8] - The company is accelerating capacity expansion in both Taiwan and Arizona to meet AI demand, with government support facilitating progress [8] - Despite concerns over rising storage costs, TSMC anticipates continued strong demand for high-end smartphones, which are less sensitive to price fluctuations [12][15] Technology & Competitive Landscape - TSMC's advanced process technologies, particularly in 3nm and upcoming 2nm nodes, are expected to maintain strong demand due to their performance advantages [18][20] - The company is committed to supporting all customers, even as it scales down 8-inch mature process capacity [14] - TSMC does not foresee a significant risk of market share loss to competitors like Intel, emphasizing the complexity and time required to develop advanced technologies [13]