Where Goldman Sachs sees the best investments over next 5 years

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs recommends investing in emerging market equities over the next one to five years, indicating they offer the highest expected returns compared to US stocks and other markets [1]. Group 1: Emerging Market Equities - Emerging market equities are projected to have an expected base case return of 8%, with a 55% probability assigned to this outcome [2]. - There is a 20% probability that emerging market returns will exceed expectations, while a 25% probability is assigned to a negative mid-teens return [2]. - The volatility in the base case for emerging markets is noted to be the greatest among all markets [2]. Group 2: US Stocks - US stocks, represented by the S&P 500, are forecasted to grow by 7% over the next 12 months and average 6% returns over the next five years [3]. - The report suggests that despite historically high valuations, US stock prices are expected to remain elevated due to declining volatility in the US economy, which supports a more reliable stream of corporate earnings [4]. Group 3: Other Markets - UK stocks and the MSCI All-Country World Index are projected to have average returns of 5% over the next five years, ranking third and fourth respectively [3]. - The forecasts are based on considerations of earnings growth, dividend yields, and expected changes in valuations [3]. Group 4: Investment Products - Funds that provide exposure to the expected top-performing trades include the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Franklin FTSE United Kingdom ETF (FLGB), and iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI) [4].