高市“绝境孤注”提前大选，日本金融市场正被重新定价

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Sanna Takashi announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives on January 14, leading to early elections on January 23, amid rising support rates for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) [1][6]. Market Reactions - The Nikkei index rose for two consecutive days on January 13 and 14, reaching a historical high, while the currency and bond markets faced a "double kill" scenario, with the yen hitting its lowest point since July 2024 and 10-year bond yields reaching a 27-year high [2][3]. - Following warnings from Japanese financial and foreign exchange officials to speculators, market sentiment stabilized, leading to a slight decline in the Nikkei index and bond yields [4]. Political Context - Prime Minister Takashi inherited a challenging political landscape, with the LDP previously losing majority seats in both houses due to rising prices and financial scandals [5]. - The early election is seen as an opportunity for Takashi to capitalize on a support rate exceeding 60%, with a recent NHK poll indicating a support rate of 62% [6]. - The LDP currently holds 199 seats, and to secure a simple majority in the 465-seat House of Representatives, at least 233 seats are needed [7]. Election Dynamics - The LDP's main opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party, holds 148 seats, while the Komeito party has 24 seats, which could influence the election outcome [7]. - The extreme right-wing party "Sanjoseito" is also a significant contender, having previously won 14 seats in the last election, which could further complicate the LDP's seat acquisition [8]. Economic Implications - A successful election for Takashi could solidify the LDP's dominance and facilitate the implementation of a $770 billion economic stimulus plan, although concerns about Japan's fiscal health and credit status are prevalent [9]. - Japan's debt has surpassed twice its economic output, raising concerns about the feasibility of funding large-scale stimulus measures and the potential for increased bond issuance [9]. - The weak yen is driving up import costs, affecting household expenses and potentially impacting Takashi's support rate [10]. Market Outlook - Historical data suggests that Japanese stock markets tend to rise in the month leading up to elections, with 10 out of 12 elections since 1990 showing an increase in the Tokyo Stock Exchange index [10]. - Analysts predict that if Takashi wins the early election, expectations for economic policy stability could lead to a sustained stock market rally lasting approximately six months [10].