碳酸锂开年凶猛，冲破17万关口后向哪里去？

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate futures has experienced a rapid increase, driven by multiple factors including policy adjustments, strong downstream demand, and supply disruptions, leading to significant impacts on the entire lithium battery supply chain [1][14]. Price Trends - Lithium carbonate futures prices rose from 130,000 yuan/ton on January 5, 2026, to a peak of 174,000 yuan/ton on January 13, 2026, marking a 33.8% increase within just eight trading days [1][3]. - From a low of 60,000 yuan/ton in the second half of 2025, prices have surged over 180% [3]. Policy Impact - The adjustment of the export tax rebate for battery products, effective April 1, 2026, from 9% to 6%, and its complete cancellation by January 1, 2027, has prompted downstream battery manufacturers to accelerate their procurement of lithium carbonate [6][14]. - This policy change is expected to create a concentrated demand surge before the tax adjustment, particularly benefiting the materials used in ternary batteries and energy storage [6]. Demand Growth - In 2025, China's retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 12.809 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with December exports soaring by 255% [8]. - Global sales of new energy vehicles are projected to reach 24.75 million units in 2026, continuing to drive demand for lithium battery materials [8]. - The new energy storage sector saw an addition of 34 GW/87 GWh in installed capacity in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a growth of over 65% [8]. Supply Disruptions - The cancellation of mining rights for 27 lithium mines in Yichun, Jiangxi, at the end of 2025 has raised concerns about short-term supply constraints, despite limited actual production capacity [9]. - Domestic lithium salt production decreased by 3.2% month-on-month in December 2025, coupled with maintenance at some enterprises, limiting supply growth [9]. Industry Chain Impact - The rise in lithium carbonate prices is expected to increase cost pressures on battery manufacturers, potentially leading to higher end-product prices for new energy vehicles [11]. - Midstream companies may enhance R&D investments to improve production efficiency and mitigate costs, while some smaller firms may face profit compression and exit the market [11]. - The overall market remains resilient, with consumer demand for new energy vehicles likely to continue growing despite price pressures [11]. Future Outlook - In the short term (Q1 2026), lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain high due to pre-export demand and post-holiday replenishment needs, with some forecasts suggesting prices could reach 180,000 to 200,000 yuan/ton [13]. - However, after the initial demand surge, prices may face downward pressure as inventory levels rise and production resumes [13]. - Long-term, the supply-demand gap is anticipated to widen due to slow new capacity releases, supporting a systemic increase in lithium prices [13].