2025年上海商办市场：供需博弈下双线承压，结构性机遇暗藏

Core Insights - The Shanghai commercial real estate market is facing dual pressures from macroeconomic adjustments and industrial transformations, leading to a challenging environment for both Grade A office buildings and retail properties in 2025 [1] Grade A Office Market - The supply-demand imbalance in the Grade A office market is deepening, with a total new supply of 1.037 million square meters in 2025, including 315,000 square meters completed in Q4 alone, contributing 243,000 square meters in the central business district (CBD) [1] - Despite a mild recovery in demand, the net absorption for the year is only 499,000 square meters, less than 50% of the new supply, further widening the supply-demand gap [1] - The vacancy rate in the CBD rose to 18.0% in Q4 2025, increasing by 1.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Average rents in the CBD fell to 6.4 yuan per square meter per day, a year-on-year decline of 12.1%, while non-CBD rents decreased to 4.2 yuan per square meter per day, down 11.0% year-on-year [3] - The financial sector remains the primary driver of demand for Grade A office space, accounting for 23%, followed by the technology and internet sector at 17%, with significant contributions from AI-related companies [4] Retail Property Market - The retail property market in Shanghai is also experiencing challenges, with new supply outpacing demand recovery, totaling 476,000 square meters in 2025, including 265,000 square meters in Q4 [5] - Despite consumer stimulus policies and a rebound in domestic tourism, the demand for retail properties is insufficient to absorb the new supply, leading to persistent rental pressure [5] - Average rents in core shopping districts fell by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter to 41.8 yuan per square meter per day, while non-core areas saw a larger decline of 1.3% to 14.4 yuan per square meter per day [5] - The overall vacancy rate in core areas decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 8.4%, while non-core areas saw a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points to 13.3%, indicating relative stability in the market [5] - Emerging consumer trends, such as pet consumption and electronic products, are driving demand in the retail leasing market, supported by government policies [6]