央行降息序幕拉开？专家：年内有可能下调政策利率20～30个基点

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy through 2026, focusing on supporting key sectors of the economy such as technology innovation, manufacturing upgrades, green development, small and micro enterprises, and consumption stabilization [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The PBOC announced a reduction of 0.25 percentage points in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, lowering the one-year re-lending rate from 1.5% to 1.25% [1]. - In 2024, the PBOC is expected to further lower the policy rates by 20-30 basis points after the initial 0.25 percentage point reduction [2]. - The adjustment of structural monetary policy tools is anticipated to guide both loan and deposit rates, potentially leading to lower borrowing costs for businesses, especially in the small and micro enterprise sectors [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Projections - The current monetary policy signals a targeted easing aimed at stimulating financing in specific sectors, which may take time to translate into real economic benefits [3]. - The stability of the RMB exchange rate and the easing monetary conditions in the U.S. are seen as favorable for the PBOC's policy adjustments, reducing constraints on the exchange rate [3]. - The average statutory deposit reserve ratio stands at 6.3%, indicating that there is still room for further reductions, with an implicit lower limit around 5.0% [4]. Group 3: Tools for Liquidity Management - The PBOC has a variety of tools at its disposal for injecting long-term liquidity into the banking system, including open market operations and MLF, which can support government bond issuance and encourage banks to increase credit supply [4].