Riverwater Partners Small Cap Q4 2025 Letter

Company Insights - Limoneira, a 132-year-old California agribusiness and the largest avocado grower in the U.S., has been expanding its avocado acreage by planting 1,500 acres, with 700 acres still maturing towards full production [16][29] - The company’s strategy of patient capital allocation is now seen as prescient due to supply chain vulnerabilities in avocado imports, with U.S. imports relying on Mexico for approximately 90% of its avocados [17] - Limoneira's domestic orchards are approaching peak production, which coincides with a decline in Mexican avocado shipments, presenting a significant market opportunity [17] Industry Trends - The Russell 2000 index, which includes small-cap stocks, is currently trading at a significant discount to large-cap stocks, a situation historically preceding substantial outperformance for small-caps [18] - Approximately 43% of Russell 2000 companies are unprofitable, a rate that has tripled over the past thirty years, indicating a trend where loss-making companies often outperform profitable ones during speculative periods [9] - The market dynamics in 2025 saw a significant decline in small-cap stocks, with a bear market triggered by tariff announcements, leading to a decline of over 20% from recent highs [8][7]