Seek .(US:SKLTY) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-15 12:11Core Viewpoint - The speech by Fu Peng emphasizes the importance of early-stage investment in technology and the necessity of risk-taking capital for industrial and technological advancements, highlighting the cyclical nature of industry life cycles and the current focus on AI as a pivotal point for future growth [3][4][5]. Group 1: Historical Context and Investment Philosophy - Fu Peng referenced two significant historical events from 2015 and 2016: Elon Musk's emotional response to the failure of SpaceX and Cathie Wood's influential presentation that outlined future technological paths, contrasting her investment style with that of Warren Buffett [3][7]. - He argues that early-stage investments, even if perceived as bubbles, are essential for progress, likening the need for risk-taking capital to historical support from monarchs and nobles for exploration and innovation [3][7]. - The period from 2015 to 2022 is described as uncertain, with a growing recognition of the need for a technological revolution to address mismatched production relationships and global instability [3][5]. Group 2: Industry Lifecycle and AI Development - Fu Peng highlighted that 2022 was a crucial year in the industry lifecycle, using NVIDIA's 70% stock drop as an example of perceived bubble behavior, which later transformed into a significant player in AI computing [4][8]. - The emergence of ChatGPT in early 2023 is seen as a turning point, representing a shift from foundational AI infrastructure to practical applications, although he cautions that current AI tools may not be the most critical innovations [4][9]. - The next 15 to 18 months are deemed critical for determining whether the current technological advancements will yield substantial returns on investment, with implications for global production relationships and order [4][9]. Group 3: Future Implications and Production Relationships - Fu Peng stresses the need for a focus on improving production relationships alongside advancing productivity, advocating for human-centered policies that enhance welfare and compensation to prevent societal collapse [5][9]. - He posits that if the current technological advancements are genuine, they could positively impact humanity and stabilize global order; conversely, if they are not, countries may face significant challenges due to mismatched production relationships [5][9].