美股“表面平静”暗藏个股巨震：AI狂热催生极端波动与“彩票心态”

Group 1 - The core observation is that beneath the calm surface of the US stock market, there is unprecedented volatility among individual stocks, with Barclays reporting a record 47 instances of extreme sell-offs among the top 100 S&P 500 constituents in 2023 [1] - Barclays suggests that the dependency of the benchmark index on AI-related stocks has increased significantly, indicating that AI technology is accelerating traders' responses to market events [1][3] - The current environment has fostered a "lottery mentality" among retail traders, who tend to buy stocks during price declines, which helps to suppress overall market volatility [3] Group 2 - A series of upcoming events may pose risks to the S&P 500 index, which recently reached a historical high, prompting recommendations for investors to buy put options on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust to hedge against potential volatility [6] - Despite low expectations for significant market fluctuations, Barclays predicts that individual stock volatility may disrupt the overall calm, suggesting a "diversified trading" strategy using derivatives to capitalize on increased individual stock volatility [6][8] - The timing for employing this strategy may be ripe as the earnings season unfolds, with notable single-day volatility observed in major S&P 500 constituents last year, such as Oracle's 36% surge and UnitedHealth's 22% drop following earnings surprises [8]