市场活力加速释放，中长期贷款持续增加

Core Viewpoint - The core theme for 2025 in the real estate market is "building a new model for real estate development," with signs of market recovery as household medium- and long-term loans turn positive, and a potential for new interest rate cuts by the central bank in Q1 2026 [2][4]. Policy Framework - In 2025, China's real estate policies focus on "stopping the decline and stabilizing" and "high-quality development," creating a systematic regulatory framework that connects short-term support with long-term transformation [3][4]. - The policy framework includes measures to stimulate demand and optimize supply, with a focus on "empowering demand, optimizing supply, ensuring security, and revitalizing existing stock" [3]. Demand-Side Initiatives - The combination of the "second home to first home" tax deduction policy and the central bank's reduction of public housing loan rates aims to lower purchasing costs and boost market confidence, with the first home loan rate dropping to 2.6% [3][4]. - Local governments have introduced various public housing policies to stimulate housing consumption, including increasing loan limits and expanding withdrawal options [6][7]. Supply-Side Reforms - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's new residential project standards emphasize quality, mandating minimum ceiling heights and elevator installations, which aligns with the "14th Five-Year Plan" to increase the supply of improved housing [3][4]. - Policies are shifting from quantity expansion to quality enhancement, focusing on revitalizing existing assets and promoting "good housing" standards [10]. Long-Term Transformation - The concept of "building a new model for real estate development" is emphasized throughout the year, with specific measures aimed at stabilizing the market and ensuring high-quality development [4][11]. - The 2026 agenda includes ensuring a smooth transition from old to new models, with ongoing adjustments to real estate policies based on local conditions [4]. Market Dynamics - By the end of 2025, the total increase in household medium- and long-term loans reached 1.27 trillion yuan, indicating a positive trend in loan growth [12]. - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained stable, with expectations for potential adjustments in early 2026, which could further support the real estate market [15][17]. Local Policy Innovations - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have implemented differentiated purchase policies to release improvement demand, with significant adjustments to eligibility criteria for home purchases [8][9]. - Guangzhou has fully lifted purchase restrictions, becoming the most relaxed city among first-tier cities, which is expected to boost market confidence [9].