人民银行再出“组合拳”！结构性货币政策工具扩容，降准降息可期

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced eight policies aimed at supporting high-quality development of the real economy, establishing a foundation for monetary policy implementation in 2026, with a focus on maintaining "moderately accommodative" monetary policy and promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [1][3]. Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The majority of the eight policies involve adjustments to structural monetary policy tools, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in interest rates for various structural monetary policy tools, bringing the one-year interest rate for various relending facilities down from 1.5% to 1.25% [3][4]. - The policies include merging agricultural and small business relending with rediscounting, increasing the relending quota by 500 billion yuan, and establishing a separate relending quota of 1 trillion yuan specifically for private enterprises [3][4]. - The relending quota for technological innovation and technological transformation has been increased from 800 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan, expanding the support scope to include high R&D investment private SMEs [3][4]. - A new risk-sharing tool for bonds issued by private enterprises and technological innovation has been established, providing a total relending quota of 200 billion yuan [3][4]. - The support scope for carbon reduction tools has been expanded to include energy-saving renovations and green upgrades [3][4]. Interest Rate and Reserve Requirement Adjustments - The PBOC indicated that there is still room for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates in 2026, with the current average reserve requirement ratio at 6.3% [6][7]. - The PBOC has previously lowered policy interest rates ten times since the second half of 2018, with the average interest rates for new corporate and personal housing loans at around 3.1% as of December 2025, reflecting a decline of 2.5 and 2.6 percentage points respectively since mid-2018 [6][7]. Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies - The PBOC plans to resume open market operations for government bonds, which had been paused since early 2025, to enhance the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [9][10]. - In 2025, the issuance of government bonds reached 16 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 6.6 trillion yuan, indicating a significant role for banks and financial institutions in holding government bonds [10][11]. Price Trends and Economic Outlook - The PBOC noted positive changes in price levels, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.8% year-on-year as of December 2025, the highest level since March 2023 [12][13]. - The PBOC will continue to implement moderately accommodative monetary policy, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [13][14].