普徕仕：日本股市上升空间有限 日元具备升值潜力

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese stock market has limited further upside potential as it has already priced in the expected victory of candidate Sanae Takaichi, subsequent fiscal stimulus measures, and the anticipated depreciation of the yen [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The financial market has reacted strongly to the prospects of the Japanese election, with the stock market reaching historical highs [1] - There is a prevailing expectation that Takaichi's victory will restore political direction and pave the way for fiscal stimulus, leading to increased investor interest in sectors such as artificial intelligence, nuclear energy, and defense [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The yen has recently weakened, reaching an 18-month low due to market concerns over a potential shift towards looser fiscal policies [1] - This situation increases the likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates earlier than anticipated, especially as inflation is expected to persist, particularly during the spring wage negotiations [1] Group 3: Political Context - Takaichi, Japan's first female Prime Minister, is preparing for an early election in early February, aiming to capitalize on high public support to secure a majority for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party [1] - Despite Takaichi's cabinet approval rating being as high as 75-76%, the support for the Liberal Democratic Party itself remains weak, hovering around the mid-30% range, which is below levels seen before the 2024 electoral defeat [1]