CR MIXC LIFESTYLE(1209.HK)FY25 PREVIEW：CORE NP GROWTH TRIMMED TO LOW TEENS

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to experience a revenue increase of 6.5% YoY in FY25E, reaching RMB 18.2 billion, with the residential segment remaining flat and the commercial segment growing significantly [1] Revenue Forecast - FY25E revenue for the residential segment is projected to be flat at +1.3% YoY, while the commercial segment is expected to grow by 13.8% YoY, driven by a slowdown in shopping mall revenue growth to 18% due to a high base effect [1][2] - The shopping mall business is anticipated to see retail sales growth in the range of 20-25%, with 14 luxury malls outperforming due to new consumption formats [2] Profitability Expectations - Core net profit (NP) is forecasted to rise by 10.8% YoY to RMB 3.9 billion in FY25E, supported by stable gross profit (GP) margins in basic property management (PM) and improved GP margins in shopping malls [1] - The GP contribution from the shopping mall business is expected to reach 60% in FY25E, enhancing the overall GP contribution of the commercial operations segment to above 70% [2] Payout Ratio - A 100% payout ratio is anticipated, consisting of 60% ordinary and 40% special dividends, due to the absence of large-scale capital deployment plans and the tendency of firms to maintain higher payout ratios when results are at or below guidance [4] Third-Party Expansion - The company has secured 11 projects by the end of November, surpassing the full-year target of 10, and has completed the target of 14 new openings [2][3]