美联储利率大动作，全球市场掀巨浪，美元霸权藏隐忧

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies on emerging markets, highlighting the volatility and challenges these markets face due to the "dollar tide" phenomenon, where capital flows in and out based on U.S. monetary policy [1][4][6]. Group 1: Impact of Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Reserve's actions of raising interest rates have led to significant capital outflows from emerging markets, with the Argentine peso and Turkish lira depreciating by 40.5% and 30.3% against the dollar, respectively [2][6]. - Conversely, when the Fed lowers interest rates, capital flows back into emerging markets, which can create speculative bubbles that risk financial instability [6][11]. Group 2: Currency and Debt Challenges - The strengthening of the dollar during rate hikes increases the cost of imports for emerging markets, leading to rising inflation pressures, while rate cuts can make exports more expensive, reducing competitiveness [9][11]. - Many emerging markets have accumulated substantial dollar-denominated debt, which becomes more burdensome as interest rates rise and local currencies depreciate, leading to record levels of debt repayment and increased default risks [11][13]. Group 3: Shifts in Global Monetary Policy - There is a noticeable decline in the dollar's dominance in global reserves, dropping to 56.92% by Q3 2025, prompting countries to seek alternatives to mitigate reliance on U.S. monetary policy [13][22]. - Countries like China and Russia are increasingly using local currencies for trade, with 99.1% of their bilateral trade settled in rubles and yuan by 2025, indicating a shift away from dollar dependency [16][22]. - Global monetary policies are becoming less synchronized with the Fed, as seen with Switzerland and the European Central Bank initiating rate cuts independently, suggesting a move towards more autonomous monetary strategies [18][20].