外汇局李斌答21：我国外汇市场日渐成熟 抵御外部风险底气更足

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese foreign exchange market is expected to maintain resilience and vitality in 2025, with stable operations anticipated in 2026, supported by both internal and external factors [2][3]. External Environment - Global economic growth is projected to be moderate, with major developed economies likely to continue interest rate cuts, which will benefit the stability of China's foreign exchange market [3]. - There are uncertainties in international financial markets and geopolitical areas that could impact the foreign exchange market [3]. Internal Environment - China's economic development quality and efficiency are improving, with the economy reaching new milestones in total output [3]. - The added value of high-tech industries above designated size grew by 9.2% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2025, becoming a significant new driving force for economic growth [3]. Trade and Investment - China's total goods trade import and export volume exceeded $6.3 trillion in 2025, with the country being a major trading partner for over 150 nations and regions [4]. - By the end of September 2025, China's foreign direct investment and foreign investment in China reached $3.4 trillion and $3.7 trillion, respectively, ranking among the top globally [4]. Foreign Exchange Market Development - The foreign exchange market in China is deepening, with trading volumes reaching historical highs and a diverse range of market participants, including domestic financial institutions and foreign entities [4]. - The foreign exchange risk exposure of domestic entities is decreasing, with the hedging ratio for enterprises increasing by 3 percentage points in 2025 [5]. - The proportion of trade settled in RMB has risen to nearly 30%, enhancing the ability of enterprises and banks to respond to market changes [5]. Currency Mechanism - The market-oriented formation mechanism of the RMB exchange rate is continuously improving, effectively stabilizing supply and demand [5]. - There is a sufficient toolbox for macro-prudential regulation of cross-border capital flows, with accumulated experience in responding to external shocks [5].