牧原股份预估净利润147亿-157亿 屠宰板块实现单季度盈利

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) is expected to experience a decline in net profit for 2025 due to low pig prices, with projected net profit ranging from 14.7 billion to 15.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 12.20% to 17.79% [1] - The average selling price of commodity pigs is expected to be approximately 13.5 yuan/kg in 2025, which is a year-on-year decrease of about 17.3%, impacting the overall profitability of the company [1] - The overall industry is facing performance declines due to the expected drop in pig prices in the third and fourth quarters of 2025, with other companies like Wen's Foodstuffs (温氏股份) also forecasting significant profit declines [1] Group 2 - Muyuan Foods' breeding costs are continuously decreasing, with the estimated average breeding cost for 2025 expected to be around 12 yuan/kg, down 2 yuan/kg from 14 yuan/kg in 2024 [2] - The company has implemented effective disease prevention measures for winter, maintaining stable production conditions and improving herd health, while also focusing on cost reduction through breeding, nutrition, and smart applications [2] - The slaughtering and meat processing segment of Muyuan Foods has shown significant growth, with slaughter volume exceeding 28 million heads this year, achieving a year-on-year doubling, and the segment is expected to maintain growth in 2026 [2]