2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2026-01-15 14:09Core Viewpoint - In a low-interest-rate environment, bank stocks are seen as representatives of dividend style investments, offering medium to long-term allocation value due to their high dividend characteristics [1] Group 1: Bank Indices Performance - The main bank indices in A-share and Hong Kong markets include the China Securities Bank Index, the China Securities Hong Kong Bank Index, and the China Securities AH Bank Index [2] - The China Securities Hong Kong Bank Index is expected to significantly outperform the China Securities Bank Index in 2025 [3] - From January 1 to December 31, 2025, the Hong Kong Bank Index recorded a growth of 28.94%, which is substantially higher than the 6.79% increase of the China Securities Bank Index and the 9.60% of the AH Bank Index [4] Group 2: Investment Trends and Fund Flows - In Q3 2025, the Hong Kong banking sector saw significant buying from insurance capital, while the A-share banking sector experienced substantial selling by public funds [10] - The proportion of active equity funds' holdings in A-share banks dropped from 3.91% to 1.49%, with the market value decreasing from 64.1 billion yuan to 30.8 billion yuan [10] - In contrast, insurance capital made 41 significant investments in banks throughout 2025, with 33 of these targeting H-share banks [10] Group 3: Stock Performance and Dividend Yields - The strong performance of the Hong Kong Bank Index is attributed to the notable gains of key stocks such as HSBC Holdings, which rose by 25.53%, and Standard Chartered, which increased by 30.66% [11] - The dividend yield for Hong Kong banks remains above 6%, making them attractive to insurance capital, while A-share banks generally have yields between 3% and 4% [13] - Historical data indicates that buying bank stocks before the Spring Festival has an 80% success rate, with quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks often yielding excess returns [13] Group 4: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, insurance capital is expected to remain a significant source of funding, but bank stocks may underperform the broader market in the first quarter due to a growth-oriented market style [15] - The return on tangible equity (ROTE) for Hong Kong banks is projected to slightly decline in 2026, yet the combined return from dividends and buybacks is still expected to exceed 7%, maintaining their investment appeal [15]