淡水泉陶冬：2026年 穿越“K型分化” 坚守“资产为王”

Core Viewpoint - The global economy in 2026 is expected to experience significant differentiation, with geopolitical and economic uncertainties likely easing compared to 2025, while the logic of liquidity driving asset prices upward remains valid [1][4]. Economic Trends - The current economic landscape is characterized by a "K-shaped" development, where the disparity between GDP growth and the average citizen's living experience is stark, particularly in the U.S. [2][3]. - AI investments have surged, accounting for over 50% of total investments in the U.S., while other sectors are lagging and require new credit cycles to stimulate growth [2][6]. - The consumer market reflects similar disparities, with the top 10% of income earners capturing approximately 25% of stock market gains, while the lowest 10% are largely excluded from stock market benefits [2]. Political Implications - Economic disparities are translating into significant political changes globally, with moderate centrist influences declining and political polarization increasing [3]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is facing pressure to adjust its monetary policy due to rising wealth inequality, with potential leadership changes expected to lead to a more responsive approach to fiscal demands [4][5]. - The structure of the global bond market is changing, with rising long-term interest rates in Japan and Europe prompting a return of overseas funds to seek higher returns, impacting U.S. Treasury demand [5]. AI Investment Landscape - 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for AI, transitioning from a focus on technological competition to a demand for profitability and sustainable business models [6][7]. - The financing landscape for AI companies is shifting, with some turning to bond markets and private credit, raising concerns about transparency and potential systemic risks [7][8]. Asset Allocation Strategies - The liquidity-driven asset price revaluation seen in 2025 is expected to continue into 2026, with a strong outlook for the Chinese yuan due to substantial trade surpluses [9][10]. - Precious metals are projected to remain attractive due to their independence from central bank policies and increasing industrial demand driven by technological revolutions [9]. - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are likely to outperform U.S. stocks in 2026, attributed to valuation disparities and a low-interest-rate environment in China [10].