ETF日报：半导体产业链收入与订单有望保持高速增长 关注半导体设备ETF

Market Overview - Major stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 0.33% to 4112.6 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.56% [1][11] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.91 trillion, a decrease of 1.04 trillion from the previous trading day, with over 3100 stocks declining [1][11] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) surged by 5.32% in the afternoon session [3][13] - TSMC reported a record net profit of $16 billion for Q4, a 35% year-on-year increase, and raised its capital expenditure guidance for 2026 to $52-56 billion, significantly above market expectations [4][14] - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from a strong demand for AI, with capital expenditure cycles in advanced processes and storage wafers beginning to rise [5][15] - Domestic wafer fabs are rapidly expanding, leading to increased price expectations across upstream segments, with a supply-demand imbalance in storage and high-end PCB sectors [5][15] New Energy Vehicles - The new energy vehicle (NEV) sector saw significant gains, with the NEV ETF (159806) rising by 1.80% [5][16] - According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, NEV production and sales reached 16.63 million and 16.49 million units respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 29% and 28.2% [6][16] - The 2026 vehicle trade-in subsidy policy is expected to boost market consumption, particularly for mid-to-high-end models [6][16] - The global NEV market continues to grow, with strong demand for lithium batteries driven by data center storage needs [7][17] Chemical Industry - The chemical sector is anticipated to recover, as the industry is currently at a cyclical low with prices at historical lows [8][18] - Policies aimed at reducing overcapacity in specific segments like PTA and organic silicon are expected to optimize supply dynamics [8][18] - The recovery in downstream industries such as automotive and textiles is likely to drive demand for chemical products [8][18] - The semiconductor and energy storage sectors are pushing demand for new chemical materials, with ongoing domestic substitution processes [8][18]