美国人意识到,贸易战之后,不会再有中国外的大规模工业化国家了
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-15 14:45

Group 1 - The US-China trade war initiated in 2018 led to over $450 billion in tariffs imposed by the US on Chinese goods, which resulted in a shift in global trade dynamics, but not in the intended direction [2][4] - Despite initial movements of some manufacturing to Southeast Asia, the overall impact was an increase in global trade volume by 3%, with US consumers facing higher prices due to tariffs [2][4] - The trade war has slowed US economic growth and expanded the trade deficit, contrary to its original goal of reducing it [4] Group 2 - Countries like Vietnam and India were initially seen as potential beneficiaries of manufacturing shifts, but they faced significant challenges such as unstable power supply and logistical issues, limiting their ability to scale industrial operations [6][8] - Mexico has become the largest trading partner for the US, but struggles with security issues and a lack of skilled labor, hindering expansion into high-tech sectors [8] Group 3 - By 2025, it is projected that these alternative manufacturing countries will not be able to fill the gap left by China, which has a comprehensive industrial system and high density of manufacturing capabilities [9][11] - The trade war has inadvertently strengthened China's industrial base, as companies localized production and developed a more complete supply chain [9][11] - The global industrial landscape is shifting towards a unipolar model centered around China, with other nations unable to replicate its industrial ecosystem [11] Group 4 - China's trade surplus reached $1.2 trillion, with strong export performance, indicating a robust manufacturing sector that continues to lead globally [11] - The trade war has accelerated diversification in global supply chains, but China's position remains stable and influential in high-tech development [11]