“降本增效”贯穿2025年广州写字楼市场

Core Insights - The commercial real estate demand in Guangzhou is expected to reshape amidst differentiation by 2025, driven by the advantages of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and new economic drivers such as cross-border e-commerce, AI, and low-altitude economy [1] Group 1: Market Supply and Demand - In 2025, Guangzhou's Grade A office market will see a supply peak with 9 new projects totaling approximately 739,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of over 100% [1] - The net absorption in emerging business districts like Pazhou and Guangzhou International Financial City is projected to reach 179,000 square meters, a year-on-year growth of 66.4% [1] - Despite the growth in specific areas, the overall net absorption for Guangzhou is expected to decline by 22% compared to the five-year average, leading to an upward trend in the average vacancy rate [1] Group 2: Tenant Strategies and Leasing Trends - In 2025, approximately 40% of major leasing transactions in Guangzhou's Grade A office market will be renewals, with many involving adjustments in rental levels or lease sizes [2] - Foreign enterprises are expected to remain cautious regarding cost control, accounting for about 20% of total leasing demand, while domestic enterprises show significant differentiation in their demand [2] - Emerging sectors, particularly large tech firms and financial institutions, are driving demand for office space, with many relocating to new, cost-effective properties in emerging districts [2] Group 3: Rental Market Dynamics - The vacancy rates in Pazhou and Guangzhou International Financial City are expected to decrease by 1.6% and 7% respectively by the end of 2025, contributing to a city-wide net absorption increase of 34.6% to 394,000 square meters [3] - The average vacancy rate for Grade A offices in Guangzhou is projected to rise by 2 percentage points to 22.9% due to tenant losses in some existing properties [3] Group 4: Emerging Industry Demand - Financial institutions, e-commerce platforms, and retail businesses are expected to remain active in the leasing market, contributing significantly to demand [4] - New emerging industries, including AI, low-altitude economy, and semiconductors, are projected to account for about 40% of the new leasing area in Guangzhou's office market in 2025 [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The average rent in Guangzhou is expected to reach 123.1 yuan per square meter per month by the end of 2025, as landlords continue to adopt a price-for-volume strategy in response to tenant cost control [5] - In 2026, the total supply of office space in Guangzhou is anticipated to reach 871,000 square meters, with significant new supply concentrated in Guangzhou International Financial City and Pazhou [5] - The influx of new projects is likely to intensify competition within the market, putting continued pressure on office asset performance [5]