How Will Mounjaro and Zepbound Sales Aid LLY's Upcoming Q4 Results?

Core Insights - Eli Lilly (LLY) has established a strong position in the cardiometabolic market, primarily due to the success of its GLP-1 therapies, Mounjaro and Zepbound, which generated $24.8 billion in sales, representing 54% of total revenues in the first nine months of 2025 [1][10] Group 1: Product Performance - Mounjaro and Zepbound's sales growth is attributed to improved domestic supply and expansion into new international markets, prompting Eli Lilly to raise its sales and earnings guidance twice in 2025 [2] - Sales estimates for Mounjaro and Zepbound for the upcoming quarter are projected at $6.55 billion and $3.62 billion, respectively, driven by stronger market penetration in the U.S. and international adoption [3] Group 2: Broader Portfolio Growth - Eli Lilly's portfolio, including oncology drug Verzenio and immunology drug Taltz, continues to show steady growth, with new launches like Omvoh, Ebglyss, Jaypirca, and Kisunla contributing to overall revenue [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk (NVO) are the leading players in the obesity market, with Mounjaro and Zepbound competing against NVO's semaglutide products, Ozempic and Wegovy [5] - Novo Nordisk received FDA approval for its oral Wegovy pill, enhancing its competitive edge, while Eli Lilly is seeking FDA approval for its own oral GLP-1 pill, orforglipron [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The obesity market is gaining attention due to its significant growth potential, with smaller biotech firms like Viking Therapeutics and Structure Therapeutics developing competing GLP-1 therapies [7][8] Group 5: Stock Performance and Valuation - Eli Lilly's stock has increased by 35.9% over the past six months, outperforming the industry average of 20.9% [11] - The stock is currently trading at a price/earnings ratio of 31.58, which is higher than the industry average of 17.86, but below its five-year mean of 34.56 [14] - Earnings estimates for 2025 have improved from $23.69 to $23.85 per share, and for 2026 from $32.06 to $33.25 [18]