结构性货币政策工具扩容 降准降息可期

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced eight policies aimed at supporting high-quality economic development through monetary policy, establishing a foundation for the implementation of monetary policy in 2026, with a focus on maintaining moderate liquidity and promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [1][10]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The PBOC will lower the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, with the one-year re-lending rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.25% [3]. - The PBOC will merge and increase the quotas for agricultural and small enterprise re-lending, adding 500 billion yuan to the agricultural and small enterprise re-lending quota and establishing a separate re-lending quota of 1 trillion yuan for private enterprises [4]. - The quota for re-lending for technological innovation and technological transformation will be increased from 800 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan, expanding the support to include high R&D investment private small and medium-sized enterprises [4]. Group 2: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The PBOC indicated that there is still room for further reductions in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates in 2026, with the current average reserve requirement ratio at 6.3% [5]. - Analysts predict that potential rate cuts may occur in the second quarter of 2026 if economic indicators show weak recovery, with an expected initial reduction of 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1 trillion to 2 trillion yuan in liquidity [6]. - The PBOC aims to maintain low comprehensive financing costs for society by promoting transparency in loan costs and optimizing the financing environment [7]. Group 3: Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies - The PBOC plans to resume open market operations for government bonds, which had been suspended, to enhance liquidity management and prevent market volatility [8][9]. - The PBOC will consider various factors, including the need for base currency supply and bond market conditions, to flexibly conduct government bond transactions, ensuring a conducive monetary environment for smooth government bond issuance [9]. Group 4: Price Trends and Economic Outlook - The PBOC noted positive changes in price levels, with the CPI rising by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, the highest level since March 2023 [10]. - The PBOC will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, as price levels are a key consideration for monetary policy [11].