2026年宏观和大类资产配置展望：行稳致远-五矿证券

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to operate steadily in 2026, with major asset classes showing a "stocks outperform bonds, commodities in a long bull market" trend, and China aiming for around 5% growth amid its economic transformation [1][2] - Major economies are experiencing cyclical divergence, with the US in a late-stage downturn, the EU and Japan in late-stage recovery, and the UK entering a new downturn [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is projected to continue, with expected cuts of 50 to 75 basis points in 2026, influenced by pressures on the Fed's independence from the Trump administration [1][2] China Economic Analysis - China's economy faces a "macro-micro temperature difference," primarily due to low prices and structural factors such as weak financial cycles and a shift in consumer demand from goods to services [2][3] - Inflation is expected to recover moderately in 2026, but the difficulty of turning the Producer Price Index (PPI) positive remains significant [2][3] - Investment is anticipated to marginally recover, with manufacturing investment stabilizing and infrastructure investment supported by policy financial tools, while real estate investment is expected to see a narrowing decline [2][3] Currency and Exchange Rate - The US dollar is entering a long-term downtrend, influenced by overvaluation relative to purchasing power parity, government efforts to promote a weaker dollar, and high debt interest rates [2][3] - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate, supported by narrowing interest rate differentials with the US and trade surpluses with the EU and ASEAN [2][3] Asset Allocation Strategy - The stock market is expected to experience a slow bull market, benefiting from improved global liquidity due to a weak dollar, the central government's commitment to stabilizing capital markets, and breakthroughs in technology and military sectors [3][8] - The bond market's allocation value is declining, with monetary policy not being extremely loose and the central bank cautious about capital turnover [3][8] - Commodities are in a long-term upward cycle, driven by a weak dollar, supply-demand tensions from global supply chain restructuring, and policies promoting a shift from virtual to real assets [3][8]