2026年宏观资配展望：识变、应变-华宝证券

Group 1 - The report by Huabao Securities provides a comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic environment and asset allocation for 2026, highlighting a mixed performance of major asset classes in December 2025, with A-shares recovering due to policy adjustments and valuation corrections, while Hong Kong stocks continued to weaken [1][13] - The overseas economic environment shows that the US economy is likely to achieve a "soft landing," with inflation declining, which may lead to 1-2 interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, while domestic economic pressures are rising, with GDP growth expected at 4.8% for the year [2][28] - The asset allocation outlook for 2026 suggests that A-shares may continue to rise but at a slower pace, with a focus on high-growth sectors like AI hardware and semiconductors, while US stocks are expected to maintain a positive trend supported by economic resilience and liquidity [5][11] Group 2 - In the fixed income category, domestic government bonds are expected to experience fluctuations in the first half of 2026, with a potential decrease in yield as interest rate cuts become more likely in the second half [5][11] - The report anticipates a stable to rising trend for the RMB exchange rate in the first half of 2026, with increased volatility expected in the second half as the Federal Reserve halts interest rate cuts [5][11] - Gold prices are projected to continue a trend of oscillating upward, with any pullbacks seen as good buying opportunities, while oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to oversupply and seasonal demand [5][11]