全球大放水开启！2026年起全民大化债，对普通人的钱袋子有什么影响？

Core Viewpoint - The global economic landscape is shifting, with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan adopting opposing monetary policies, leading to changes in liquidity and debt management strategies across major economies [1][3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates four times from late 2025 to late 2026, making money cheaper [1]. - In contrast, the Bank of Japan has begun raising interest rates, with a current benchmark rate of 0.5%, and plans to reduce its bond purchasing by approximately 2 trillion yen monthly starting April 2026 [1][3]. - This divergence in monetary policy between the two largest economies is creating a complex global liquidity environment [3]. Group 2: Impact on Global Liquidity - The yen carry trade, where investors borrow yen at low rates to invest in higher-yielding assets, has reached a scale of over 140 trillion yen (approximately $930 billion), which is 236% of Japan's GDP [3]. - As Japanese interest rates rise and U.S. rates fall, the profitability of this carry trade is being squeezed, potentially leading to a sell-off of U.S. assets as investors return to yen [3]. Group 3: Debt Management Strategies - High debt levels are a common issue for many economies, with emerging markets and developing economies facing the highest public debt levels in over fifty years [4]. - The Eurozone's debt-to-GDP ratio reached 78.1% in July, indicating significant debt challenges [4]. - China plans to maintain an active fiscal policy with a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and a slight increase in the broad fiscal deficit rate to 8.9% [4]. Group 4: Effects on Interest Rates and Inflation - Lower interest rates from central banks will likely lead to reduced loan rates, benefiting borrowers but potentially shrinking interest income for savers [5][7]. - The average mortgage rate has decreased to approximately 3.24%, which is favorable for homeowners [7]. - Global inflation is projected to decline from 4% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2026, although certain essential costs, such as services, continue to rise [7][8]. Group 5: Asset Prices and Investment Strategies - Low interest rates and increased liquidity typically drive up asset prices, with U.S. stock indices showing gains amid rate cut expectations [8]. - However, high valuations in sectors like artificial intelligence pose risks of market corrections [8]. - Governments may resort to issuing more bonds to manage debt, which could lead to lower bond prices and higher yields, impacting bond investors [8]. Group 6: Trade Policies and Economic Growth - The U.S. high tariff policies are affecting global trade, with the World Trade Organization downgrading the 2026 global goods trade growth forecast to 0.5%, significantly lower than 2.4% in 2025 [9]. - Trade difficulties may lead to increased production costs, ultimately affecting consumer prices [9]. Group 7: Recommendations for Individuals - Adjusting savings strategies is crucial in a declining interest rate environment, with a recommendation to diversify into medium- to long-term deposits [11]. - Borrowers should consider the benefits of lower interest rates on existing loans, while being cautious about increasing debt [11]. - Investment strategies should focus on diversification to mitigate risks associated with high asset valuations [11][12].