美国赖账声势渐起，美债已减持到位，谁最慌？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex interplay of debt as a power struggle and survival mechanism in the global economy, highlighting the evolving dynamics of debt relationships and their implications for international finance and politics [1][17]. Group 1: Debt Dynamics - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with an average debt burden of over $100,000 per American, raising concerns about financial market confidence [7]. - By 2025, U.S. federal interest payments are projected to exceed $1 trillion, surpassing military spending, indicating a critical fiscal situation [7]. - Japan holds approximately $1.1 trillion in U.S. debt, facing pressure to sell these assets to stabilize the yen, but is constrained by historical and geopolitical ties [9]. Group 2: Strategic Responses - China has reduced its holdings of U.S. debt to below $700 billion by 2025, reflecting a strategic shift towards diversifying assets and reducing reliance on the dollar [11]. - Emerging markets, including Saudi Arabia and Southeast Asian countries, are moving towards using local currencies for trade, indicating a trend away from dollar dependency [11]. - China's gold reserves have exceeded 74 million ounces by the end of 2025, positioning gold as a critical asset in an era of potential currency instability [13]. Group 3: Power Play in Debt - The U.S. faces two potential paths: either defaulting on its debt or continuing to print money to devalue the debt, both of which represent a slow-motion financial crisis [14]. - The concept of "debt restructuring" is framed as a means to normalize defaults, with the U.S. potentially issuing "century bonds" that may not pay interest, effectively eroding their value over time [14]. - The article emphasizes that the future of financial relations will depend on who can navigate these challenges effectively, with Japan being locked into its U.S. debt position while China seeks to withdraw strategically [14][16].